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Hierarchical Organization Simulacra in the Investment Sector

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores designing artificial organizations with professional behavior in investments using a multi-agent simulation. The method mimics hierarchical decision-making in investment firms, using news articles to inform decisions. A large-scale study analyzing over 115,000 news articles of 300 companies across 15 years compared this approach against professional traders' decisions. Results show that hierarchical simulations align closely with professional choices, both in frequency and profitability. However, the study also reveals biases in decision-making, where changes in prompt wording and perceived agent seniority significantly influence outcomes. This highlights both the potential and limitations of large language models in replicating professional financial decision-making.


Enhancing Few-Shot Stock Trend Prediction with Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The goal of stock trend prediction is to forecast future market movements for informed investment decisions. Existing methods mostly focus on predicting stock trends with supervised models trained on extensive annotated data. However, human annotation can be resource-intensive and the annotated data are not readily available. Inspired by the impressive few-shot capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose using LLMs in a few-shot setting to overcome the scarcity of labeled data and make prediction more feasible to investors. Previous works typically merge multiple financial news for predicting stock trends, causing two significant problems when using LLMs: (1) Merged news contains noise, and (2) it may exceed LLMs' input limits, leading to performance degradation. To overcome these issues, we propose a two-step method 'denoising-then-voting'. Specifically, we introduce an `Irrelevant' category, and predict stock trends for individual news instead of merged news. Then we aggregate these predictions using majority voting. The proposed method offers two advantages: (1) Classifying noisy news as irrelevant removes its impact on the final prediction. (2) Predicting for individual news mitigates LLMs' input length limits. Our method achieves 66.59% accuracy in S&P 500, 62.17% in CSI-100, and 61.17% in HK stock prediction, outperforming the standard few-shot counterparts by around 7%, 4%, and 4%. Furthermore, our proposed method performs on par with state-of-the-art supervised methods.


Pre-trained Large Language Models for Financial Sentiment Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial sentiment analysis refers to classifying financial text contents into sentiment categories (e.g. positive, negative, and neutral). In this paper, we focus on the classification of financial news title, which is a challenging task due to a lack of large amount of training samples. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to adapt the pretrained large language models (LLMs) [1, 2, 3] to solve this problem. The LLMs, which are trained from huge amount of text corpora,have an advantage in text understanding and can be effectively adapted to domain-specific task while requiring very few amount of training samples. In particular, we adapt the open-source Llama2-7B model (2023) with the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) technique [4]. Experimental evaluation shows that even with the 7B model (which is relatively small for LLMs), our approach significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art algorithms.


Understanding Divergent Framing of the Supreme Court Controversies: Social Media vs. News Outlets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the framing of political issues is of paramount importance as it significantly shapes how individuals perceive, interpret, and engage with these matters. While prior research has independently explored framing within news media and by social media users, there remains a notable gap in our comprehension of the disparities in framing political issues between these two distinct groups. To address this gap, we conduct a comprehensive investigation, focusing on the nuanced distinctions both qualitatively and quantitatively in the framing of social media and traditional media outlets concerning a series of American Supreme Court rulings on affirmative action, student loans, and abortion rights. Our findings reveal that, while some overlap in framing exists between social media and traditional media outlets, substantial differences emerge both across various topics and within specific framing categories. Compared to traditional news media, social media platforms tend to present more polarized stances across all framing categories. Further, we observe significant polarization in the news media's treatment (i.e., Left vs. Right leaning media) of affirmative action and abortion rights, whereas the topic of student loans tends to exhibit a greater degree of consensus. The disparities in framing between traditional and social media platforms carry significant implications for the formation of public opinion, policy decision-making, and the broader political landscape.


Can Large Language Models Be an Alternative to Human Evaluations?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human evaluation is indispensable and inevitable for assessing the quality of texts generated by machine learning models or written by humans. However, human evaluation is very difficult to reproduce and its quality is notoriously unstable, hindering fair comparisons among different natural language processing (NLP) models and algorithms. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance on unseen tasks when only the task instructions are provided. In this paper, we explore if such an ability of the LLMs can be used as an alternative to human evaluation. We present the LLMs with the exact same instructions, samples to be evaluated, and questions used to conduct human evaluation, and then ask the LLMs to generate responses to those questions; we dub this LLM evaluation. We use human evaluation and LLM evaluation to evaluate the texts in two NLP tasks: open-ended story generation and adversarial attacks. We show that the result of LLM evaluation is consistent with the results obtained by expert human evaluation: the texts rated higher by human experts are also rated higher by the LLMs. We also find that the results of LLM evaluation are stable over different formatting of the task instructions and the sampling algorithm used to generate the answer. We are the first to show the potential of using LLMs to assess the quality of texts and discuss the limitations and ethical considerations of LLM evaluation.


How Can ChatGPT Predict Stock Movement?

#artificialintelligence

Alejandro Lopez-Lira, a money teacher at the College of Florida, says that enormous language models might be valuable to predict stock movements. He utilized ChatGPT AI chatbot to parse news titles for whether they're positive or negative for a stock, and tracked down that ChatGPT's capacity to anticipate the following day's profits was superior to irregular, he said in a new unreviewed paper. The investigation strikes at the core of the commitment around cutting-edge man-made brainpower: With greater PCs and better datasets-like those driving ChatGPT-these artificial intelligence models might show "emanant capacities," or abilities that weren't initially arranged when they were constructed. If ChatGPT can show the new capacity to comprehend titles from monetary news and what they could mean for stock movements, it could endanger lucrative positions in the monetary business. Around 35% of monetary positions are in danger of being computerized by artificial intelligence, Goldman Sachs assessed in a Walk 26 note.


Words that Wound: The Impact of Biased Language on News Sentiment and Stock Market Index

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigates the impact of biased language, specifically 'Words that Wound,' on sentiment analysis in a dataset of 45,379 South Korean daily economic news articles. Using Word2Vec, cosine similarity, and an expanded lexicon, we analyzed the influence of these words on news titles' sentiment scores. Our findings reveal that incorporating biased language significantly amplifies sentiment scores' intensity, particularly negativity. The research examines the effect of heightened negativity in news titles on the KOSPI200 index using linear regression and sentiment analysis. Results indicate that the augmented sentiment lexicon (Sent1000), which includes the top 1,000 negative words with high cosine similarity to 'Crisis,' more effectively captures the impact of news sentiment on the stock market index than the original KNU sentiment lexicon (Sent0). The ARDL model and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses disclose that Sent1000 has a stronger and more persistent impact on KOSPI200 compared to Sent0. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding language's role in shaping market dynamics and investor sentiment, particularly the impact of negatively biased language on stock market indices. The study highlights the need for considering context and linguistic nuances when analyzing news content and its potential effects on public opinion and market dynamics.


Computational Assessment of Hyperpartisanship in News Titles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We first adopt a human-guided machine learning framework to develop a new dataset for hyperpartisan news title detection with 2,200 manually labeled and 1.8 million machine-labeled titles that were posted from 2014 to the present by nine representative media organizations across three media bias groups - Left, Central, and Right in an active learning manner. The fine-tuned transformer-based language model achieves an overall accuracy of 0.84 and an F1 score of 0.78 on an external validation set. Next, we conduct a computational analysis to quantify the extent and dynamics of partisanship in news titles. While some aspects are as expected, our study reveals new or nuanced differences between the three media groups. We find that overall the Right media tends to use proportionally more hyperpartisan titles. Roughly around the 2016 Presidential Election, the proportions of hyperpartisan titles increased in all media bias groups where the relative increase in the proportion of hyperpartisan titles of the Left media was the most. We identify three major topics including foreign issues, political systems, and societal issues that are suggestive of hyperpartisanship in news titles using logistic regression models and the Shapley values. Through an analysis of the topic distribution, we find that societal issues gradually receive more attention from all media groups. We further apply a lexicon-based language analysis tool to the titles of each topic and quantify the linguistic distance between any pairs of the three media groups. Three distinct patterns are discovered. The Left media is linguistically more different from Central and Right in terms of foreign issues. The linguistic distance between the three media groups becomes smaller over recent years. In addition, a seasonal pattern where linguistic difference is associated with elections is observed for societal issues.


Title2Event: Benchmarking Open Event Extraction with a Large-scale Chinese Title Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Event extraction (EE) is crucial to downstream tasks such as new aggregation and event knowledge graph construction. Most existing EE datasets manually define fixed event types and design specific schema for each of them, failing to cover diverse events emerging from the online text. Moreover, news titles, an important source of event mentions, have not gained enough attention in current EE research. In this paper, We present Title2Event, a large-scale sentence-level dataset benchmarking Open Event Extraction without restricting event types. Title2Event contains more than 42,000 news titles in 34 topics collected from Chinese web pages. To the best of our knowledge, it is currently the largest manually-annotated Chinese dataset for open event extraction. We further conduct experiments on Title2Event with different models and show that the characteristics of titles make it challenging for event extraction, addressing the significance of advanced study on this problem. The dataset and baseline codes are available at https://open-event-hub.github.io/title2event.


Why Do We Click: Visual Impression-aware News Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There is a soaring interest in the news recommendation research scenario due to the information overload. To accurately capture users' interests, we propose to model multi-modal features, in addition to the news titles that are widely used in existing works, for news recommendation. Besides, existing research pays little attention to the click decision-making process in designing multi-modal modeling modules. In this work, inspired by the fact that users make their click decisions mostly based on the visual impression they perceive when browsing news, we propose to capture such visual impression information with visual-semantic modeling for news recommendation. Specifically, we devise the local impression modeling module to simultaneously attend to decomposed details in the impression when understanding the semantic meaning of news title, which could explicitly get close to the process of users reading news. In addition, we inspect the impression from a global view and take structural information, such as the arrangement of different fields and spatial position of different words on the impression, into the modeling of multiple modalities. To accommodate the research of visual impression-aware news recommendation, we extend the text-dominated news recommendation dataset MIND by adding snapshot impression images and will release it to nourish the research field. Extensive comparisons with the state-of-the-art news recommenders along with the in-depth analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and the promising capability of modeling visual impressions for the content-based recommenders.